By the Numbers: Predictions
Celebration 2029, Predicted
Where will Star Wars Celebration go after Los Angeles 2027? Nothing's been announced, but the convention's history offers some tempting clues. We've followed the dates, locations, guest appearances and ticket trends to make a few educated guesses.
The forecast
Sixteen shows is enough to spot habits. Celebration likes April, likes a two-year gap, and likes raising prices about six percent a year. Put those habits together and you get the show below.
Where
With London hosting in 2023, Japan in 2025 and Los Angeles coming in 2027, could Europe be next in the rotation? The recent pattern makes a pretty good case for it.
- ›Europe Our pickSince 2015 the show has rotated US, Europe, Japan, US. After a US show, Europe is due.55%
- ›Back in the US10 of 16 shows so far30%
- ›Japan2 shows, far apart10%
- ›Somewhere newOnly 9 venues in 26 years; new cities are rare5%
Based on how the show has moved between regions since 2015 and which venues get asked back.
Who shows up: our odds
Anthony Daniels and Dave Filoni look like two of the safest bets for another appearance. Mark Hamill is a much bigger question mark, having last attended Celebration in person in 2017.
- 1Anthony Daniels15 of 16 shows · 5 of the last 598%
- 2Dave Filoni12 of 16 shows · 5 of the last 590%
- 3Warwick Davis12 of 16 shows · 4 of the last 578%
- 4Hayden Christensen6 of 16 shows · 5 of the last 575%
- 5Mark Hamill8 of 16 shows · 1 of the last 532%
- 6Ewan McGregor2 of 16 shows · 2 of the last 529%
- 7Harrison Ford2 of 16 shows · 2 of the last 529%
- 8George Lucas4 of 16 shows · 1 of the last 522%
Our odds, worked out from how often each has appeared in person, with the last five Celebrations counting for more.
Ticket projection
Since Orlando 2017, full-event passes have climbed about 6% a year. Keep that rate going for two more years from the Los Angeles price and a 2029 pass lands somewhere around $290. That's our projection, anyway.
How the ticket prediction is made
How we made these guesses
Every number above comes from the archive and a simple rule. Here are the rules.
- When
- We took the gaps between the last six shows (2, 3, 1, 2, 2 years) and averaged them, counting recent gaps for more. Add that to 2027 and you get 2029. April is the month 7 of 16 shows have opened in, so that's our pick.
- Tickets
- Full-event passes have grown about 6% a year since 2017, as sold. We ran that rate forward 2 years from the Los Angeles 2027 price. The Jedi Master VIP pass gets the same treatment at its own rate, about 6% a year.
- Autographs and photo ops
- We fitted a growth line through the typical price at the last six shows, in dollars at the time, and carried it to 2029. That comes out at about 17% a year for signatures and 16% for photo ops. The signature to beat is simply the current record.
- Guests, attendance, panels, length
- Weighted averages of the last five shows, with the most recent counting five times as much as the oldest. No growth applied: these bounce around with the venue more than they trend.
- Tickets on sale
- The last few shows opened ticket sales about 9 months ahead of opening day, weighted the same way. Count back from April 2029.
- Where
- Since 2015 the show has rotated US, Europe, Japan, US. The percentages are our read of that pattern plus which venues get asked back. They are judgment, not math.
- Who shows up
- Each guest's odds blend two things: how many of the 16 shows they have appeared at in person (40% of the score) and how many of the last five (60%). A regular who has skipped the recent shows drops fast.